Bricks, blocks, sticks and stucco: What do they have in common? These materials are all integral parts in the construction process, used in different ways to build and finish structures. Elements of the infrastructure of our homes and communities; in simple terms.
For more than twenty years observations and commentaries can be made of the trends that have boomed and bust Las Vegas.
The Las Vegas housing market has seen dramatic swings about as rich of a ride as any casino slot machine can squeal! When the stakes are high the house wins or loses, boom bust.
In 2003 Las Vegas was at the height of a spinning Wheel of Fortune ride, harder yet to win due to the frenzied buying stakes of everyone from sea to shining sea. The Las Vegas housing market was intrepid with buyers flocking to the desert with hopes of winning a now infamous, housing lottery ticket. The builder lottery tickets were hard to grab as they churned like an air-mixed or gravity-pick lottery ball machine waiting to declare a winner while would-be hopefuls were turned away in disappointment. Wait lists for new construction homes were almost impossible to snag and if you were to fall under the spell of Lady Luck, you were indeed paying for that newfound luck in more ways than one!
There were no shortages of willing participants to purchase builder new homes or speculator side-sales. For most, at the time, having foresight of a weakening infrastructure was still beyond visibility and about sixty months down the road! Home prices soared because of high demand and a tight, limited home supply. Viewed as an impetus in the direction of a housing collapse; Not unlike a jilted lover, volatility came knocking in an already uncertain national economy and in one-fail swoop, the bubble of many burst!
Accosted by an unfavorable and inverse condition for decreased housing demand and increased home supply, home prices dropped sharply for the Las Vegas home market. Las Vegas hailed a housing champion and now, consumed; she entered a severe housing recession. Las Vegas didn’t have much bounce until several years after the rest of the nation had already begun to recover. Las Vegas started to see some equity resilience mid to late 2016 and into 2017; And, by 2019-2020 as she was trying to stabalize and still recovering from a hard jab on her shapely jawline, some new challenges, coined pandemic, came ushering in.
Fast forward to today, where Las Vegas finds herself facing other unique challenges, supply shortage, moderate demand, housing affordability, and high interest rates. Fluctuations will bear an indelible imprint on local market housing trends just like anywhere else. Perhaps these factors are the most impactful, bearing the greatest weight on Las Vegas’ capacity to boom or bust:
- Economic Recovery: Pace is primary in any economic recovery effort. Las Vegas’ ability to recover from a recession, a pandemic, or any economic imbalance, could have a significant impact on the local housing market. Tourism, hospitality, and job growth also play a role in Las Vegas’ unique housing tendencies.
- Supply and Demand: Housing supply and demand typically influence price trends. Construction activity, builder permits, and population influx are also relevant factors.
- Government Stimuli and Geopolitics: Government stimulus in an OD mode bodes well for no one, except for the issuer of the stimulus. Geopolitical tensions around the globe, curbed housing demand, high-higher interest rates, historical analyses and the threat of a recession have all culminated, at times, well and unique to the local Las Vegas real estate market. Presidential election years also impose their influence on the behavior of local markets.
- Increased Household Formations: A combination of factors mid-strike the pandemic cooked up a cauldron of beefed-up home values and left Las Vegas real estate housing market to be devoured by those who were famished. In 2023, a slight differential was noted, albeit with some tell-tale differences. Post-pandemic recovery update, speculators are on the move!
- Water Challenges: Will there be enough fresh water for new developments? Whoever owns the water owns the people, the same has been said, and can also be true for land!
Factors that contribute to the volatility of the Las Vegas housing market are what also makes her as dynamic and ever-changing a landscape as she is. The 2024 housing economy is speculatively paraded to put the past pandemic years and recession conversations in the back seat, a kind of buy and hold, if you will. Pivoting, she’s pressing onward, star lighting the Las Vegas home market with a promise of opportunities for both buyers and sellers alike.
In closing and returning to the bricks, blocks, sticks and stucco materials known in construction, each has a marked durability, strength, and versatility. Applying each of these materials in different ways to build and finish a structure, each one can operate independently or in a combination of arrangements serving a unique purpose to the integrity of its structure. Lungo Vita a Las Vegas!
Fortune Builder, Than Merrill, article 2022: “Las Vegas NV Housing Market, Prices, Trends & Forecasts 2022”
True Gazette, Harry Williams, article 2023-2024: "Introduction to the LV Housing Market"
US News & World Reports, March 2023, Patrick Duffy: "Las Vegas Housing Market Forecast"
Forbes Advisor, July 2023, Josh Patoka: "Las Vegas Housing Market: What’s Happening in 2023?"
Photo by Heather Gill on Unsplash